So, There were elections?
On Thursday 4 May 2023 elections were held in the England for local government, which means district councils, unitary authorities, and directly-elected mayors in England. It was the first real test of Rishi Sunak and his current premiership by the electorate. Let's talk about that.
So what is the general feel of the elections?
Well, that depends on which side of the fence you sit on, we have seen a significant swing away from the Conservative Party which is currently in charge of the government in the UK towards other parties. I just want to say I'm particularly happy because the Greens did well, and being a Green supporter myself it's nice to see them getting more of the vote.
So what's the breakdown?
Let's start with the biggest loser, the Conservative Party has lost 1,058 seats across the areas that were being polled this time around. That is a staggering loss that can only be seen as a direct reflection of the current view of the party across England. If it were any other time I think we would be seeing the resignation of a PM. But right now, in the UK things are tough, we have gone through 3 Prime Ministers in the last 12 months and with a General Election coming up in the not-to-distant future to have yet another PM leave would cement the idea that the blue party are just not fit to govern.
Not let us talk about my team, the Green Party. The truth is the greens are a fringe party in the UK without much of a solid base of supporters large enough for them to be a major player. But, with a gain of 241 seats during the last round of polling we can see that they have done quite well. There are a number of reasons for this, between tactical voting and many people feeling disenfranchised from the major parties some voters seem to have decided to try something new.
The liberal Democrats in the UK are a bit of a mixed bag. They often do well during local elections but struggle to have this translate to general election success. There is a number of reasons for this but it mostly boils down to a mix of people feeling they need to vote for one of the big three, that being the SNP, who we have a post about here, Labour or The Conservatives. But also, in 2010 They decided to be the minor party of a coalition with the Conservatives and this greatly harmed their image with the base that they had at the time. Despite this, they saw a gain of 405 seats in the local elections and had the second-largest gain in seats.
The red team, The Labour Party had the biggest gain of all parties during these elections gaining 536 seats. It is an impressive gain but let's have a little bit of a closer look into that. When looking at the local elections held for different constituencies last year they have not really seen any gain in share of the vote. This could mean that despite the failings of the current government, people feel that they can't vote for the party. Instead turning their votes towards other parties like the LibDems and the Greens.
My thoughts
Only time will tell if we will see a labour government in the near future but what I feel is safe to say is the Conservative Party are going to struggle to maintain a full majority during the next GE. It wouldn't be the first that the Tories have been the largest party but having had to rule as either a coalition or a minority government with a support agreement with another party.
I think I will be interested to see how, and if the Greens can capitalise on their success, having expected around a 100-seat gain before the election, to beat that expectation by 2.5x is impressive. With that said, they are now going to have to work hard as local representatives to even dream to make gains in the next general election. I would like to think that we will see at least a small increase in the number of Green MPs in the UK, but I have been here before. Much like the LibDems the Greens have often found it difficult to secure national appeal. This is due to a mixture of their policies being quite reformist and expensive to enact and the aforementioned fear many have when voting for a party that isn't team red or blue.
Another interesting point will be how the Conservatives choose to go after this hammering. On the one hand, they have a clearly laid out five-point plan that they believe if they achieve will manage to sway the general public. I have my doubts, the truth is a ruling party can only rule for so long. When the times get tough the people look for a change in leadership in an attempt to regain stability. Not to mention the numerous blunders, issues, and general mismanagement that has come from the party over the last few years.
So, to round up, the Tories did pretty badly, Labour did about average, LibDems are usually decent in locals and the Greens are a surprise. But the truth is, we have no idea how or even if this is a reflection of what people are feeling overall. It almost certainly is a reflection of current public opinion. But the opinion of the public is fickle and we can have a short memory when the Tories promise us the moon.
One final note, in the UK local elections, have a horrifically low turnout, and this means that the already not very representative voter shares are even less reliable when considering how they may translate to a national election. There has been a number of times where local elections and opinion polls said one thing, and when it was all said and done it went the other way. Just look at Brexit for an example.
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